Take the Over in Leon (-125)
Jornada 3 | Betting & Analysis
Over/Under Pick: León v. Pachuca | Over 2.5 (-125)
León is proving themselves to be one of the more exciting teams to watch in Liga MX considering their statistical possession advantages and having scored five goals on the season already. This offensive charge is particularly being curated by Ecuadorian forward Angel Mena, the league leader with three goals on only four shots. It should be noted that all of his goals have come from the penalty spot, but his positioning in the attack is generating opportunities nonetheless.
The opponent at Estadio Nou Camp this Saturday is Pachuca, a team that has had some trouble finding its form as of late. This season cumulatively Pachuca has only found the back of the net once in their two games. Fingers can be pointed at Liga MX veteran, Rubens Sambueza, and starting forward Franco Jara for this unimpressive goal count.
Analysis
Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under at 2.5 goals, and I am encouraging bettors to take the Over (-125).
This decision stems from Leon’s impressive ability to score and due to their clean sheet history, or rather lack thereof (1-9 in recent matches). León is 7-2-1 on the Over/Under in their last 10 games and is playing at home where they tend to not only win (3-1-1 in recent matches) but do so in high-scoring fashion. Although I was critical of Pachuca’s attack, I find myself in love with this pick since Pachuca has held more possession and out-shot their opponents in their two previous matches, which you wouldn’t have noticed if you only looked at the final scoreline. They had an abundant amount of shots last week (21) and I expect them to capitalize this time around.
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Looking at the history between these two teams makes this game even more intriguing. Head-to-head, Leon has only kept one clean sheet and failed to score only once in their previous 10 meetings. Pachuca actually mirrors these statistics, having also only kept one clean sheet and failed to score only once in their previous 10 meetings against León.
Clausura Form
León
- 4th place (3 pts)
- Queretaro (W, 3-1), Santos (L, 3-2)
Pachuca
- 15th place (1 pt)
- Pumas (L, 2-1), Chivas (Draw, 0-0)
Match Day & Time
January 25th, 2020
7:00 pm PT / 10:00 pm ET