Jornada 3 | Betting Analysis & Picks
Spread Pick: Tigres v. Atlas | Atlas +1.0 (-135)
Tigres are back at home after letting Club America’s Henry Martin squeeze through for the game-winning goal in Estadio Azteca last week. The Tigres attack is limping into the match against Atlas since star forward Andre-Pierre Gignac is still battling an injury. Ricardo “Tuca” Ferretti’s team is no stranger to starting slow at the beginning of a new season, perhaps we can call it “the Liguilla hangover”. Even with the slow start, Tuca still has his team dominating possession, something they often accomplish over their opponents even when the scoreline doesn’t go their way. 56% possession in the loss against Club America last week and 65% in the draw against Atletico San Luis. Let’s not get confused here, Tigres (-1.0) are still the favorite to win at home in front of their home crowd. The question is, can Atlas keep it close enough to beat the spread?
Atlas is coming off an ugly home loss to a 10-man Puebla team. If losing to Puebla wasn’t bad enough, the club also got punished by the league for their fans chanting an anti-gay slur during the match. This leaves Atlas having to play its next home match behind closed doors, without any fans allowed in attendance. Focusing on gameplay, Atlas faired well in limiting Puebla to only three shots total. Offensively, the finishing was lacking, but they managed 14 shots total and kept 69% possession. The week before last week, Atlas had 67% possession against Cruz Azul. With two possessive-based teams playing on Saturday, we may see a tight scoreline, even if one team is unarguably stronger.
Analysis
Oddsmakers have set the spread at +1.0 for Atlas, and I am encouraging bettors to take that for -135 odds. A successful bet here entails Atlas winning, or Atlas drawing or money-back if Atlas lose by one goal.
Tigres are off to a slow start as previously mentioned, but they are particularly having issues at home in their most recent matches. Tuca’s squad is just 1-3-1 at home in recent matches and has gone 0-4-1 against the spread in those matches. Their offense has failed to score in four of their most recent 10 games and this trend may continue without a fully healthy lineup. Tigres historically play Atlas well considering they’ve scored five goals to Atlas’ three goals collectively in the last three head-to-head matches.
It is rare for a Liga MX team to perform well away from home, but Atlas has been solid (2-2-2) in their most recent matches. Looking at their against the spread record specifically, they’ve been able to achieve a respectable 4-2 in away matches recently. Atlas is nowhere close to being in form, but in six out of their last 10 matches, they’ve been able to keep the game within one goal. Keeping it close is all we are asking for Atlas to do against the favored Tigres.
Clausura Form
Tigres
- 16th place (1 pt)
- Atletico San Luis (Draw, 0-0), Club America (L, 1-0)
Atlas
- 11h place (3 pts)
- Cruz Azul (W, 2-1), Puebla (L, 0-1)
Match Day & Time
January 25th, 2020
5:00 pm PT / 8:00 pm ET