Jornada 3 | Betting Analysis & Picks. Morelia takes on Juarez at home in El Estadio Olimpico. Morelia up until this point into the early season has been underwhelming, but a bounce-back game against a defensively weak Juarez F.C team is the remedy they need. That and Morelia’s great defense makes Morelia the team to pick for the set Moneyline of (+140).
Moneyline Pick: FC Juarez v. Morelia | Morelia (+140)
Last week I took the Over (-150) in Juarez, and this week I am going back to Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez for my Moneyline pick. Fans were given an offensive show last Thursday night between Pumas and FC Juarez, but our focus turns to the nightmare defensive performance by the Bravos’ backline. The two center backs were often out of position and the 5’ 10’’, 37-year-old goalkeeper, Ivan Vazquez, did not look comfortable coming off of his line. To be fair, they were not getting much support from their defensive midfielders, Jose Esquivel and Jefferson Intriago, in terms of staying put and closing passing lanes, which is necessary for the 4-2-3-1 formation that FC Juarez prefers.
Coming into town is Morelia, a confident team that typically plays with only three defenders in the back. They tied in last week’s outing against the defending champions Rayados, and held Monterrey to 43% possession and only surrendered goals from the penalty spot. This rejuvenated Morelia club does not have the big-name players, but are still able to string together passes up top that makes them of Liguilla caliber.
Analysis
Oddsmakers have set the Moneyline at +140 for Morelia, and I am encouraging bettors to take that opportunity.
Taking an away team favorite is something I don’t recommend often in Liga MX, considering the great effect that home-field advantage holds, but everything here is lining up for Morelia to come out victorious against FC Juarez.
Last year Morelia picked the Bravos apart, winning to 6 to 1. Since then Morelia has only gained more confidence and FC Juarez hasn’t made any drastic changes to their defensive tactics. FC Juarez is only 1-1-3 in their recent home matches and is 1-3-1 against the spread at home.
Morelia might not be the most prolific team away from home (1-2-2 in recent matches) but seem to do well against the spread as the visiting team, going 3-2 in their past five games. I’m rolling with Morelia as the evidence points to the idea that Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez might not be a sufficient fortress, at least compared to other home crowds around the league.
Clausura Form
FC Juarez
- 17th place (1 pt)
- Chivas (L, 2-0), Pumas (Draw, 4-4)
Morelia
- 14th place (1 pt)
- Toluca (L, 1-0), Monterrey (Draw, 2-2)
Match Day & Time
January 26th, 2020
5:00 pm PT / 8:00 pm ET