Liga MX: Cruz Azul look vulnerable with Pachuca ahead
All is not as rosy as it may seem with Cruz Azul. After the loss to Necaxa two weeks ago, a win against Atlas doesn’t do much to ease worries. Now they’ll face a decent Pachuca side.
Cruz Azul sits atop the Liga MX table with 23 points, having scored 17 goals, while conceding just 5 across 10 matches. On the surface, Cruz Azul is flying high. After all, they hadn’t suffered a loss until two weeks ago. But even the way they went about beating Atlas wasn’t how we’d come to expect Cruz Azul to play.
Now Pachuca hosts La Maquina, and even without Franco Jara or Jaine Berreiro due to red cards in their match against Tijuana, Pachuca stand as a better test than Atlas to see whether teams have started to figure the table-leaders out.
Last Match
Pachuca: L @ Tijuana 1-0
Despite 60% possession and forcing four saves from the Tijuana goalkeeper, Los Tuzos couldn’t break through. After giving up the game’s opening goal shortly after halftime, Pachuca needed to break down the Xolos tough defense to tie the game. The frustration boiled over in the form of two red cards that ultimately ended their chances. The 1-0 loss was their first loss since August 4, when they lost 3-1 to Club America.
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Cruz Azul: W v Atlas 2-0
Cruz Azul couldn’t have drawn a better opponent after their first loss of the season. Atlas look like they might not score again all year. I’m only sort of joking. (UPDATE: I wrote this before Atlas scored against Toluca…twice!) Still, Los Zorros shelled Cruz Azul to the tune of six shots on target. Against a better team, its hard to imagine Jesus Corona keeps a clean sheet. In their loss to Necaxa, they allowed four shots on target and gave up two goals. For reference, they allowed just three shots on goal to Santos and just one to Toluca in prior matches. So what’s going on with the defense? In any case, they were able to beat Atlas 2-0 and keep the two clubs in the same positions they came in to the match with.
Predicted Lineups
Pachuca: 4-3-3
Blanco
Martinez – Tapias -Pena – Garcia
Guzman – Hernandez – Lopez
Palacios – Ulloa – Sagal
Franco Jara picked up a red in their loss to Tijuana last week so he’ll need to be replaced in the lineup. Now seems like as good a time as any to start their signing from Leicester City in the English Premier League, Leonardo Ulloa. Ulloa has subbed on for Jara a few times this season, and faired decently. Now it’s time to start and help Pachuca up front from the get-go. Also subbing in for a suspended player will be Miguel Tapias, who will need to fill-in for Jaine Barreiro. Though they’ll be without two of their key players. Pachuca will still have Victor Guzman to lean on. Guzman has had an excellent season and will need to be at his best in this match.
Cruz Azul: 4-2-3-1
Corona
Dominguez – Aguilar – Lichnovsky – Aldrete
Marcone – Baca
Hernandez – Mena – Alvarado
Caraglio
Cruz Azul has tried out a number of lineups. This one is the lineup Pedro Caixinha sent out against Santos when they drew 1-1. I think playing Elias Hernandez and Roberto Alvarado further up the pitch and covering them with Baca and Marcone just in front of the defensive four gives Cruz Azul balance between attack and defense that they need. Milton Caraglio is tied with Hernandez for first on the team in goals and should be the target-man up top. If Cruz Azul focuses on shutting down Victor Guzman, they should stand a pretty good chance of coming out on top in this one.
Key Players
Pachuca: Victor Guzman has to be the man in this match. With Jara out, Guzman is the top goal scorer on the team. Cruz Azul is likely to shade the defense towards him so he’ll need to find ways to be effective at getting his teammates in the best positions to take advantage of any gaps it leaves.
Cruz Azul: Jesus Corona. If the defense lets Pachuca get six shots on target like they did against Atlas. Corona will need to be on the top of his game. He can’t prevent the shots, but he can be talking with his defenders, getting them into the right positions and making big saves when called upon. The 37-year-old will hope the team in front of him can get themselves back to their old form, but if they aren’t, he’ll be ready.
Prediction
By all accounts, Cruz Azul should win this match. Pachuca is down two starters and hasn’t been the most prolific team in Liga MX this season anyway. However, Club America is breathing down Cruz Azul’s neck now and La Maquina has shown some shakiness in their otherwise steady defending. I’m calling for a bit of an upset here.