Liga MX: Necaxa hosts León as both see playoff dreams fading

Necaxa and León – two teams with dwindling playoff hopes – meet at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes in what is essentially a must-win game for both teams.

Necaxa has been mostly dreadful since a promising start under new coach Marcelo Michel but the Rayos are only 4 points out of a playoff spot (though there are 7 teams – including León – between them and that spot).

León – only 3 points out of the last playoff spot – has been maddeningly inconsistent this season, and their erratic play cost Gustavo Díaz his job. Former Necaxa star Nacho Ambriz is now the Esmeraldas coach and he has a bone to pick with Rayos management who fired him after last season. Ambriz did enjoy a measure of revenge last month as he directed León to a 2-0 win over Necaxa in the Copa MX.

The Rayos have played well at home (3-2-1) and León has been decent on the road (2-1-3) so this game has potential for some fireworks.

Last match

Necaxa: 0-0 draw at Veracruz

The Rayos looked rather inept in this one, failing to score against the league’s worst defense. Even worse, during the final 30 minutes of the match, it appeared that several Necaxa players were just going through the motions. Coach Michel installed a complex passing offense that ran smoothly early in the season, but it has bogged down of late and the game at Veracruz saw several players go solo instead of relying on the high-motion offense.

León: 2-1 loss vs Morelia

After an impressive road win over Veracruz the week before, the Esmeraldas laid an egg at home against the Monarcas who were on a 6-game winless streak. León didn’t play badly, but the offense was quiet and ineffective. Morelia played a disciplined defensive style and hit on the counter, securing a late winner only 3 minutes after León had tied it up.

Possible line-ups

Necaxa: 4-1-4-1

Gutiérrez

Beckeles – Hernández – Alvarado – Mayorga

González

Allende – Fernández – Villalpando – Córdova

Dávila

Coach Michel might decide to put Carlos Peña in the starting line-up (in place of Francisco Córdova) and place him alongside Mati Fernández in a two-headed midfield leadership role. Dieter Villalpando must rediscover the spark he displayed early in the season while Víctor Dávila will have to remain patient and wait for his opportunities rather than rush things as he has been prone to do in recent games.

León: 4-4-2

Cota

Navarro – Mosquera – Tesillo – Cornejo

Meneses – Mejía – Montes – Moreno

González – Boselli

León will primarily play on the counter, and look for the quick strike with Luis Montes directing the attack. They will probably cede possession to Necaxa with Yairo Moreno staying wide ready to chase the long ball. Montes will look to set up Mauro Boselli and Walter González, neither of whom has been refined with their finishing.

Key players

Necaxa: Yosgart Gutiérrez gets the start in goal after Hugo González suffered a shoulder injury while on duty with El Tri. The 37-year-old keeper will have to be on his toes, especially with regard to long distance shots. He will also be tested with crosses and centering passes. He must be clean with his technique to give the Rayos a chance.

León: Luis Montes has allowed his frustration to boil over from time-to-time this season, but it mostly has been due to dissatisfaction with his own performance rather than anger at his teammates. If he can find his passing touch, Necaxa’s suspect defense could leave him space in which to operate.

Prediction

Necaxa actually had five players out on national team duty during the break and perhaps they will come back revitalized. If Chilean internationals Mati Fernández and Víctor Dávila adhere to the game plan, they could spark a late-season revival. A loss could see Coach Michel start looking to clean house before the Clausura 2019 starts in January. I think the Rayos will pay well enough to win, but come up short due to long-standing defensive liabilities, in a result that will do damage to both sides.