Liga MX: Is Monterrey ready to make a statement against Toluca?

The Monterrey-Toluca match outcome could be the difference between claiming a top seed and squeaking into the playoffs.

Of all the top Liga MX teams, Monterrey has been the one most hurt by injuries. Meanwhile, Toluca simply prefers to handle that on its own, regularly shooting itself in the foot with silly fouls and red cards. Skipper Rubens Sambueza returns from a red card but his midfield mate Willian da Silva misses out after being shown red against Pachuca.

While the Rayados have been forced to play a more conservative style that they’d like, they have been stockpiling much-needed points. On the other hand, Toluca has been lucky that their lack of discipline has not cost them more, including against Pachuca when Luis Enrique Quiñones scored a late, short-handed goal to steal a win.

Last match

Monterrey: 2-1 loss at Cruz Azul

The Rayados felt cheated at Estadio Azteca after scoring an early goal only to see striker Rogelio Funes Mori sent off on a dubious red card in minute 21. Just two minutes later, they were complaining about a soft penalty call (it may have been soft, but it was a penalty). Even so, Monterrey adjusted to the circumstances and had several chances to reclaim the lead but were denied by brilliant goal-keeping.

Toluca: 2-1 win vs Pachuca

With the scored tied at 1 just past the half-hour mark, midfielder Willian da Silva made a rash, cleats-up challenge on Jorge Hernández and was promptly sent to the showers. Pachuca settled into a possession game, patiently probing for the winning goal, but they were too indecisive as Toluca closed ranks in front of keeper Luis García. Then with 5 minutes remaining, Quiñones found space inside the box and blasted a sharp-angle shot inside the far post for the win.

Possible line-ups

Monterrey: 4-2-3-1

Barovero

Medina – Sánchez – Molina – Vangioni

González – Ortiz

Pabon – Cantu – Hurtado

Madrigal

With Funes Mori unavailable, youngster Luis Madrigal gets the start up front. He has had valuable experience this season while Funes Mori struggled to return from offseason surgery. Though Eric Cantú would be a surprise starter, I think he gets a look due to continued absence of injured Rodolfo Pizarro and because Cantú has played well in the Copa MX. If Avilés Hurtado is fully fit, the Rayados will be in attack mode all game.

Toluca: 4-4-2

García

Salinas – Tobio – García – Borja

Mendoza – Sambueza – Rios – Quiñones

Canelo – Vega

Toluca’s forwards have had difficulty finding the net all season, but Alexis Canelo scored against Pachuca. Youngster Alexis Vega, 20, has shown the ability to find space but his finishing has been atrocious. The return of Rubens Sambueza should provide offensive structure and fullbacks Rodrigo Salinas and Cristian Borja are dangerous on the flanks.

Key players

Monterrey: Avilés Hurtado is back after tweaking a hamstring last month and he will stretch the Toluca defense hoping to create space for Luis Madrigal in the middle of the box. If he is fully recovered, his speed and explosiveness might really test young Toluca goalie Luis García.

Toluca: Antonio Rios mans the space in front of Toluca’s central defenders but Monterrey tends to attack from the wings. It will be interesting to see if that means he drifts into wider spaces or tracks one of the Rayados’ wingers. If he can slow down the Rayados’ counterattack, he can help Toluca be more dangerous on offense.

Prediction

Monterrey just has too much talent to be in 6th place. Their loss to Cruz Azul allowed Toluca to leapfrog the Rayados into 5th place. Monterrey knows a win could boost them into 4th place and they are always tough at home (3-1-1). I see them opening the throttle against Toluca and embracing the challenge of knocking off big rivals.