Which Liga MX Side has the Best Chance of Winning the Leagues Cup?

The Leagues Cup is heading towards the business end with the remaining 15 (written after Pumas' 4-0 loss to the Seattle Sounders) sides aiming for glory.

Since its inauguration in 2019, Cruz Azul, Club León and Inter Miami have had their hands on the trophy. Of those previous winners, Azul and Miami remain in the tournament whilst Club León bowed out during the group stage.

Representing Liga MX at this late stage of the Leagues Cup include Club América, Toluca, Mazatlán, Tigres and Cruz Azul.

Below you can see the Round of 16 breakdown:

América and Toluca

América and Toluca are the Mexican representatives on the left side of the draw, and if results go in favour of those clubs, they will meet in the quarter final. If they do meet in the next round, both Las Águilas and Los Diabolos Rojos are two of the most successful clubs in Mexican football, winning the Liga MX title 25 times between them. Their most recent matchup resulted in a 5-1 demolition in favour of eventual Clausura winners América, but their two previous meetings ended in stalemates.

América were handed a pass from the group stages, after winning the 2024 Clausura. Friendlies against Chelsea and Aston Villa were played whilst Toluca won both of their group games against the Chicago Fire and Sporting Kansas City. The Mexico State side is unbeaten in their opening four Liga MX matches and has continued that form in the Leagues Cup, with the helping hand of Jesus Angulo who has scored in all three games.

As Pumas failed to beat the Sounders, the other quarter final will be an all-MLS affair as the Seattle side awaits the winners of the San Jose Earthquakes and LAFC. The winner of that matchup will potentially meet one of América or Toluca if they are able to fight their way past the Colorado Rapids and St Louis City.

Last night saw a true statement win for the Seattle side, marking their names as challengers for the rest of the competition. LAFC will also believe in their chances to go far in the competition, as they have recorded two clean sheets in their opening three Leagues Cup games, which included an opening 3-0 win against Tijuana.

Mazatlán and Cruz Azul

On the other side of the draw, with all fixtures being played tonight, either Mazatlán or Cruz Azul will add their name to the list of quarter finalists. In their last three meetings, whilst all have either ended in a draw or a one-goal win, Cruz Azul has twice come out victorious. Los Azules opened their 2024 Apertura campaign with a 1-0 win against Mazatlán, needing a 93rd minute winner from Bryan Gamboa to secure all the points. During the 2023-24 campaign, Azul won 2-1 during the Clausura but the 2023 Apertura encounter ended in a 2-2 tie, with the Mexico City side once again needing an added time decider to steal a point.

The winner of that game will meet either Cincinnati FC or the Philadelphia Union. Two sides with varying outcomes against Liga MX clubs in the competition.

Cincinnati opened their Leagues Cup campaign with a 1-0 win over Querétaro, a side that has failed to win any of their first four Liga MX matches. The Orange and Blues overcame the challenge of Santos Laguna in the previous round, an initial 1-1 tie took the teams to a penalty shootout, with the MLS side coming out on top. Philadelphia faced Cruz Azul in the group stage, with the game also ending in a 1-1 draw. After failing to win their first spot kick against Charlotte FC, Los Azules turned things around in the meeting with The Union, a result which ultimately secured their passage into the knockout rounds.

Tigres

The remaining Liga MX club, who could face either Cruz Azul or Mazatlán in the semi final are Tigres. A side which won both of their group games, including a 2-1 win over reigning champions and potential quarter final rivals Inter Miami.

Veljko Paunovic's side are flying so far this season. Six wins from seven, the only dropped points were in a 1-1 draw with Atlas. After topping the group, Tigres beat CONCACAF Champions League winners Pachuca 1-0 to be sent to the next round. They face an NYCFC side which has failed to win any of their last five games in normal time, needing penalty shootout wins against Querétaro and New England Revolution to be in the final 16.

If they make it past the New York club, they will either face Inter Miami once again or the reigning MLS winner the Columbus Crew. That round of 16 tie is a re-run of last year's final, where Lionel Messi and his team managed to win in a penalty shootout. The Crew secured qualification to the latter rounds by virtue of winning the MLS, being granted time to relax whilst the other sides went through the group stages. In that time, they beat Aston Villa 4-1 before facing Sporting Kansas City, whom they dispatched with ease with a 4-0 victory. They remain a force to be reckoned with, a team that is aiming to avenge their final loss last summer.

Overall

Each five remaining Liga MX clubs have a task on their hands to reach the final and win the competition. We have already seen surprise exits from the likes of Monterrey and Chivas, but Toluca and Tigres have both started the new Liga MX campaign with style and confidence. Club América will be aiming to use their automatic pass into the knockout rounds to their advantage whilst Mazatlán is the shock addition to this list, a team that nobody expected to be at this stage, but could be seen to cause further upsets given the lack of expectation on their shoulders.

Who do you think will win the Leagues Cup?